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Falacia numero mil! No pares hasta el millon!Escrito por MrLinux
Yo nombre al oro, porque para cualquier persona con una minima nocion de economia el oro es un indicador acerca de la situacion en la que se encuentran las divisas. Y estamos hablando de divisas, no???Escrito por MrLinux
Lo dice hasta un diario argentino, lo que indica que estamos hablando de algo basico, que esta en boca de todos etc....http://www.ambito.com/noticia.asp?id=487004El oro cotiza cerca de registros récord por debilidad del dólar.
El oro trepó debido a que la debilidad del dólar incrementó el atractivo del metal como protección contra la caída de las monedas.
Neal Greenberg, operador de TraderNeal, dijo que el oro estaba siendo impulsado principalmente por la debilidad del dólar ya que es poco probable que la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos eleve las tasas de interés pronto.
"El oro no está siendo tan utilizado como una cobertura contra la inflación, sino que está siendo utilizado como una cobertura contra las divisas. Parece que hay una carrera mundial de todos los bancos centrales por devaluar sus monedas", agregó.
Los inversores compraron oro como una alternativa a las divisas en billetes, y un dólar más bajo también abarata al oro para los tenedores de otras monedas.
El dólar cayó a sus mínimos de sesión frente al euro debido a las preocupaciones acerca de la condición de la divisa estadounidense como moneda preeminente de reservas.
A partir de eso se genero un debate dado el punto de vista de lord: "esta caro y punto", pero la idea central era tomarlo como un indicador, junto a tantos otros, de la debilidad del dolar.
Si nos acotaramos al titulo del thread hubiera faltado un solo post para que podamos dar por concluida la discusion.
"dolares"
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Estimados: OFFTOPIC y las disculpas del caso.
A falta de moderador me inmiscuyo en esta charla de futuro de dólares porque me parece que se esta juzgando una opinión en términos personales y me parece no es debido.
¿Acaso no es posible discutir sin agresiones? O simplemente por conceptos estratégicos o de formación diferir y de esa forma plantearlo?
La necesidad que frecuentemente se plantea en el discurso de convencer al otro no es más que una falta de confianza propia.
Estas discusiones siempre aportan datos interesantes que particularmente valoro y agradezco. -
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Gabriel:Escrito por gabriel271
Tienes toda la razón, hay mucha gente en este foro que es muy cerrada y lo peor de todo que entra mucha gente nueva que lo puede tomar como verdadero a sus post.
Como en cualquier foro hay que tomar lo útil que también lo hay, he leído aportes muy buenos también.
Saludos. -
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La proxima vez antes de postear y abrir un thread (fijate si ya no hay un abierto sobre este tema)...cosa q lo habia....
Ayuda: ¿Ahorrar en pesos o en dólares? | 2nda. parte
Ya el dolar tiene poco recorrido....ya no es potencial ganancia como lo fue comprar a partir de 3 pesos....se pronostica q para el año q viene va a estar en 3.95 y para el 2011 4.10....asi q si te das cuenta en 2 años la potencial suba es de menos del 7%...(eso fue lo q q aprobo el gobierno de presupuesto para el 2010 y un estimativo para el 2011) -
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Boudou: "Apostar al dólar es una mala idea"
Puede ser tannnn nabo?
O trama algo?
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Vos vivis en una burbuja no?
Siendo que esto lo posteas 24hs despues del comunicado de la reserva federal, debo asumir que no estas muy metido en el tema.
Te pido por favor que encuentres UNA noiticia, UN dato, algun analisis coherente en el que se hable de un dolar fuerte a futuro...
Apostar al peso es una mala idea eso si, pero apostar al dolar hoy en dia es una de las peores ideas posibles.http://www.europac.net/#King Dollar Forced to Abdicate
For the most part, the value of the dollar is given cursory attention by the financial media.
Typically, its movements are assigned an importance on par with much less determinative metrics such as natural gas futures and construction permits. It's only when major milestones are reached that anyone really takes notice of the dollar. We are living through one of those times.
The great dollar rally of 2008-2009 has come full circle. When the financial crisis exploded in its full ugliness in mid-2008, the dollar, which had steadily declined over the previous four to five years, put in a rally for the record books. By March 2009, as investors across the world sought safety from the financial storm, the index had surged more than 25%. Since then, the dollar has steadily declined to the point where nearly all those gains have vanished. In short, the panic rally has given way to the long term trend.
So, as the dollar index makes fresh 52-week lows on a nearly daily basis, discussion on the greenback is heating up . And while real insight on the topic is hard to find, the debate centers on the battle between two conventional opinions – both of which are wrong.
The first camp, which is generally supportive of government intervention in the economy, argues that dollar's decline is a positive for both the economy and the stock market. The second camp, which tends to fall on the more conservative end of the political spectrum, views the dollar's decline as a problem but feels that tough talk and slightly higher interest rates are all that is needed to restore ‘King Dollar’ to its throne.
First of all, a weak dollar is no better for Americans than a lower paying job is for a worker. And although I would prefer that the dollar remain strong, I know that currency values are a function of supply and demand, not wishful thinking. The past years of reckless monetary and fiscal policy have created conditions that must push the dollar down. Vastly expanded debt levels and monetary expansion have created a greater supply of dollars, while poor investment performance and diminished industrial capacity have lessened the demand for dollars.
The regrettable truth is that while the weak dollar will help rebalance the global economy, it is not a panacea for the U.S. The fall is no more worthy of celebration than a student celebrating falling grades on his report card. If the dollar does not recover eventually, Americans will suffer diminished living standards. To avoid this we must make difficult reforms now. If we continue our current policies, we run the risk of a complete dollar collapse. Far from helping to solve our problems, this would be a true nightmare scenario.
On the other side of the argument, those who correctly equate a weaker dollar with a weaker America mistakenly believe that mere posturing by officials or trivial rate hikes would be sufficient to restore the dollar's lost vitality. We are long past that point. The best we can do now is to accept the penalty of a weaker dollar as punishment for our prior failures, and start building for the future.
To save our currency, the Fed must get very aggressive with interest rate hikes and rein in the supply of dollars that have flooded the world over the past few years. The federal government must also do its part by cutting spending, which means no more stimulus and no more bailouts. Undoubtedly, these actions will have unpleasant economic and political consequences. A student who studies harder may have to miss a party or two. A simple analogy, but unfortunately it is that simple.
Even in the unlikely event that our political leaders take these courageous steps, the near-term trajectory of the dollar may still be uncertain. A dollar rally that results from higher interest rates and a narrowing federal deficit may soon fade as the recessionary forces that such moves would unleash act to weaken the dollar once again. But at least we would be building a foundation upon which the dollar could eventually find some footing.
With a restructured economy, higher savings, more capital investment, lower government deficits, and higher interest rates, the United States would once again attract international investment. Funds would flow here not out of fear, as they did last year, but out of confidence. The dollar's strength would not rest on the willingness of foreign governments to buy our debt, but the willingness of foreign consumers to buy our products.
Only then could King Dollar regain its throne.
-----Agregado el 5/11/2009 a las 10 : 41 : 33-----http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125733025462627735.htmlThe dollar weakened against the euro after the Federal Reserve left its target interest rate unchanged and gave no signal rates would rise soon.
The policy statement, largely unchanged from recent statements, could mean the Fed is confident the U.S. economy is recovering and wants to keep monetary policy loose to encourage continued growth. Or continued loose policy could mean the Fed is concerned U.S. growth is flagging, and feels that low rates are needed to kick-start the economy, analysts said.
One thing is certain: Ultralow interest rates -- and no hint on when rates might change -- are bad for the dollar.
By late afternoon in New York, the euro had strengthened to $1.4867 from $1.4712 late Tuesday. The dollar moved to 90.59 from 90.34 yen. The euro jumped to 134.68 yen from 132.91 yen. The U.K. pound strengthened to $1.6565 from $1.6412. The dollar weakened to 1.0158 Swiss francs from 1.0268 francs.
"The Fed's on hold, the global economy is recovering and that's negative for the U.S. dollar," said Adam Boyton, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank. "There's no reason the euro couldn't pass $1.55 by the end of the year."
The Fed left the key fed-funds rate in a band of zero to 0.25% and reiterated its commitment to keep rates "exceptionally low" for "an extended period."
The dollar got some support from the central bank's decision to trim its purchases of U.S. agency debt to $175 billion from a $200 billion, a move many interpreted as a tiny step toward an eventual policy tightening.
"Essentially, this is going to act as a type of monetary policy tightening, the removal of some of those emergency programs. That's really laying the groundwork for an eventual fed-funds rate hike," said Omer Esiner, senior market analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington.
That day is a long way off: Scotia Bank in Toronto sees the Fed on hold until the third quarter of 2010, a widely held view; Standard Chartered expects no action for all of next year. -
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aja asi que tenemos que creer el analisis brillante de este muchacho, disculpa no es el mismo que dijo que el problema era la inflacion y empezo a subir la tasa a lo pavote desde 1% a 5,75% desencadenando una de las crisis mas importantes de la historia por el problema de la inflacion?, pero y la inflacion donde estaba?
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